Friday, May 1, 2015

2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Round 1

Like a lot of people, I filled out a bracket in the NHL playoff challenge.  Also like a lot of people, I actually thought I had a chance at picking the winners.  As the first round of the playoffs winds down, I can look at the ruins of my bracket and wonder where I went wrong.  All in all, I guess I really didn’t do terribly awful.  In the Eastern Conference I correctly picked 3 of the 4 winners, but was off in all the numbers of games of the 3 series.  I did, however, have the right number of games in the Caps/Isles series, but the wrong winner.
In the Western Conference I had the Flames beating the Canucks in 6 games, but I went downhill fast after that.  I had Anaheim over Winnipeg in 5 games, so I was only off by a game there.  I had Nashville in 7 games over Chicago (who won in 6).  But the biggest flub of all came when I picked the Blues to go all the way to the finals.  So, not only did they not win the first round, but now I have to look at that blue note in every subsequent round knowing that there’s at least one winner that I’m not picking.  My failure lives on all the way to the Stanley Cup Final (where, by the way, I had called a rematch of the 1968 and 1969 Final series between St. Louis and Montreal).

For what it’s worth, I could still have 3 of my final 4 teams make it…but it’s not looking good after last night.  I had picked Calgary to beat Anaheim, setting up a rematch of the 1986 Campbell Conference Final series.  As you can see, I like historical rematches.  Unfortunately, I like to make my picks based on things that haven’t happened in the last 30 or 40 years.  I guess that’s why I never managed to get a job as a pro scout.
If anybody cares, I picked the Canadiens and the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final.  The Rangers suffered a setback in Game One, but I still think they’re the better team and will win out in the end.  The Montreal/Tampa Bay series is the one that could get interesting.  History, and especially recent history, doesn’t seem to be on Montreal’s side.  The last time Montreal made it to the Semifinals, Tampa Bay didn’t even exist yet.  Worse, Les Habitants lost all 5 meetings against the Lightning this season.  In their playoff history against each other the teams are 4-4, each having swept the other in the playoffs.  Tampa Bay’s sweep came in 2004, a stepping stone to winning the Stanley Cup.  Montreal’s sweep came last year in the first round, with Anders Lindback in goal for Tampa Bay after an injury to Bolts starter Ben Bishop.
This year, Bishop is back and looking strong after a Game 7 victory against the Detroit Red Wings.  This series should come down to goaltending, with Price being counted on heavily by the offense-challenged Canadiens.  Tampa Bay’s strength is their offense, so in the end this will come down to strength against strength.  Each game has the potential to end in one of two ways; either a 1-0 victory for Montreal, or a 6-1 victory for Tampa Bay.  Tampa Bay may outscore Montreal 30-9 in the series, and lose 4 games to 2.
The Rangers are too strong, and the Caps too one-dimensional, for that series to go Washington’s way.  I predict that it will go seven games, but I think the Rangers will move on.  Holtby looked good in the Caps net last night, but he’s no match for Hank at the other end.  When all is said and done, I think the Rangers will shut down Ovechkin and silence the Caps offense.  New York has too many weapons and Holtby can’t win every game 2-1.  The X-factor there might be “Big Goal” Joel Ward, who seems to have a knack for scoring goals when they are needed most.  I just don’t know if he has three more of those in him.
I picked Calgary over Anaheim largely for sentimental reasons.  Flames GM Brad Treliving is an old friend from my WPHL/CHL days and a former Coyotes Assistant GM to boot.  My heart picked him more than my head, but after last night it’s clear that I had no idea how good Anaheim is.  Despite being a left-coaster, I really haven’t seen much of the Ducks this year and had absolutely no idea they had that potent of an offense.  Unless last night was a complete anomaly, I just think they will overwhelm Calgary.  My prediction is Anaheim in 5 games.  I know, it’s a little easier to pick after game one, especially one that is that decisive, but there it is nonetheless.
I want Minnesota to beat Chicago, but I don’t think they have it in them.  As great of a story as they are, and especially Devan Dubnyk (another former Coyote), I just think the Hawks have too much playoff experience and too many weapons for the Wild to handle.  The deciding factor could come down to goaltending; Dubnyk will have to tend the goal like he’s never tended a goal before, and Chicago’s uncertainty at the position with the struggles of Crawford and Darling (himself a great feel-good story after climbing from the abyss of SPHL obscurity) may prove to be their undoing.  Still, I’m picking Chicago in 6.
I’ll meet you back here after this round is over so you can laugh at how awful my picks were.  Then I’ll make new picks for the third round, complete with justifications for why my second round went so awry.

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