Like a
lot of people, I filled out a bracket in the NHL playoff challenge. Also like a lot of people, I actually thought
I had a chance at picking the winners.
As the first round of the playoffs winds down, I can look at the ruins
of my bracket and wonder where I went wrong.
All in all, I guess I really didn’t do terribly awful. In the Eastern Conference I correctly picked
3 of the 4 winners, but was off in all the numbers of games of the 3
series. I did, however, have the right
number of games in the Caps/Isles series, but the wrong winner.
In the
Western Conference I had the Flames beating the Canucks in 6 games, but I went
downhill fast after that. I had Anaheim
over Winnipeg in 5 games, so I was only off by a game there. I had Nashville in 7 games over Chicago (who
won in 6). But the biggest flub of all
came when I picked the Blues to go all the way to the finals. So, not only did they not win the first
round, but now I have to look at that blue note in every subsequent round
knowing that there’s at least one winner that I’m not picking. My failure lives on all the way to the
Stanley Cup Final (where, by the way, I had called a rematch of the 1968 and
1969 Final series between St. Louis and Montreal).
For what
it’s worth, I could still have 3 of my final 4 teams make it…but it’s not
looking good after last night. I had
picked Calgary to beat Anaheim, setting up a rematch of the 1986 Campbell
Conference Final series. As you can see,
I like historical rematches.
Unfortunately, I like to make my picks based on things that haven’t happened
in the last 30 or 40 years. I guess that’s
why I never managed to get a job as a pro scout.
If
anybody cares, I picked the Canadiens and the Rangers in the Eastern Conference
Final. The Rangers suffered a setback in
Game One, but I still think they’re the better team and will win out in the
end. The Montreal/Tampa Bay series is
the one that could get interesting.
History, and especially recent history, doesn’t seem to be on Montreal’s
side. The last time Montreal made it to
the Semifinals, Tampa Bay didn’t even exist yet. Worse, Les Habitants lost all 5 meetings
against the Lightning this season. In
their playoff history against each other the teams are 4-4, each having swept
the other in the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s
sweep came in 2004, a stepping stone to winning the Stanley Cup. Montreal’s sweep came last year in the first
round, with Anders Lindback in goal for Tampa Bay after an injury to Bolts
starter Ben Bishop.
This
year, Bishop is back and looking strong after a Game 7 victory against the
Detroit Red Wings. This series should
come down to goaltending, with Price being counted on heavily by the
offense-challenged Canadiens. Tampa Bay’s
strength is their offense, so in the end this will come down to strength
against strength. Each game has the
potential to end in one of two ways; either a 1-0 victory for Montreal, or a
6-1 victory for Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay may
outscore Montreal 30-9 in the series, and lose 4 games to 2.
The
Rangers are too strong, and the Caps too one-dimensional, for that series to go
Washington’s way. I predict that it will
go seven games, but I think the Rangers will move on. Holtby looked good in the Caps net last
night, but he’s no match for Hank at the other end. When all is said and done, I think the
Rangers will shut down Ovechkin and silence the Caps offense. New York has too many weapons and Holtby can’t
win every game 2-1. The X-factor there
might be “Big Goal” Joel Ward, who seems to have a knack for scoring goals when
they are needed most. I just don’t know
if he has three more of those in him.
I picked
Calgary over Anaheim largely for sentimental reasons. Flames GM Brad Treliving is an old friend
from my WPHL/CHL days and a former Coyotes Assistant GM to boot. My heart picked him more than my head, but
after last night it’s clear that I had no idea how good Anaheim is. Despite being a left-coaster, I really haven’t
seen much of the Ducks this year and had absolutely no idea they had that
potent of an offense. Unless last night
was a complete anomaly, I just think they will overwhelm Calgary. My prediction is Anaheim in 5 games. I know, it’s a little easier to pick after
game one, especially one that is that decisive, but there it is nonetheless.
I want
Minnesota to beat Chicago, but I don’t think they have it in them. As great of a story as they are, and
especially Devan Dubnyk (another former Coyote), I just think the Hawks have
too much playoff experience and too many weapons for the Wild to handle. The deciding factor could come down to
goaltending; Dubnyk will have to tend the goal like he’s never tended a goal
before, and Chicago’s uncertainty at the position with the struggles of
Crawford and Darling (himself a great feel-good story after climbing from the
abyss of SPHL obscurity) may prove to be their undoing. Still, I’m picking Chicago in 6.
I’ll meet
you back here after this round is over so you can laugh at how awful my picks
were. Then I’ll make new picks for the
third round, complete with justifications for why my second round went so awry.
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